Korontada, tamar cusub, kaluumaysata iyo calaacalaha orso labaduba way leeyihiin

Marka la gaadho 2035, miisaanka suuqa tamarta ee Shiinaha waxa uu dhaafi doonaa marka la isku daro Maraykanka iyo Yurub, waxana uu miisaanka suuqa gaaska dabiiciga la mid noqon doonaa kan Maraykanka, taas oo ku qasbi doonta dawladda Shiinaha in ay dardargeliso horumarinta cusub. ilaha tamarta.

Maalmo ka hor, shirkadda cilmi-baadhista iyo falanqaynta suuqyada caalamiga ah ee IHS ayaa soo saartay warbixin cilmi-baadhis ah oo ay ku sheegtay in sannadka 2035-ka, miisaanka suuqa tamarta Shiinaha uu dhaafi doono marka la isku daro Maraykanka iyo Yurub, isla markaana cabbirka suuqa gaaska dabiiciga ah uu la mid noqon doono. suuqa Maraykanka, kaas oo sidoo kale ku qasbaya dawladda Shiinaha in ay dardargeliso horumarinta tamarta cusub. Marka la eego qiimaha tamarta sare ee la filayo iyo kharashyada, IHS waxay aaminsan tahay in Shiinuhu uu horumarin karo ilaha tamarta nadiifka ah iyada oo aan kor loo qaadin qiimaha tamarta.

Kobcinta tamarta cusub ayaa soo dhow

10-kii sano ee la soo dhaafay, dhaqaalaha Shiinaha ayaa si xoog leh u horumaray, waxaana heerka kobaciisu uu aad uga sare maray dalalka kale. Dhismaheeda kaabayaasha korontadu waxa ay sidoo kale ku tallaabsatay horumar wanaagsan, kaas oo saddex jibaarmay isla muddadaas. Kobaca ayaa inta badan ka yimi tamarta dhuxusha lagu shido. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, iyada oo baahida sii kordheysa, dhibaatooyinka deegaanka ee hadda jira iyo dhibaatooyinka hawada wasakhaysan ee magaalooyinka ayaa noqday mid soo socda, taas oo ku khasabtay dawladda inay tixgeliso qaadashada ilo tamar nadiif ah.

IHS waxay dhowaan soo gabagabaysay daraasad ku saabsan isbeddellada horumarineed ee mustaqbalka ee gaasta dabiiciga ah iyo suuqyada korontada ee gobollada Shiinaha. Warbixinta cilmi-baarista waxaa cinwaan looga dhigay "Xallinta Tangram" (Turjumaadda Shiinaha "Xalinta Tangram", taas oo sahamisa sahayda tamarta, baahida, qiimaha, iyo Sidee qiimaha saamayn doonaa siyaasadaha iyo horumarinta mustaqbalka ee warshadaha tamarta Shiinaha.

Sida warbixinta lagu sheegay, culayska korontada ee Shiinaha ayaa si aad ah u kordhay 10kii sano ee la soo dhaafay, isagoo ku daray 80GW awoodda la rakibay sannad kasta, awoodda cusub ee la rakibay afartii sanaba mar waxay la mid tahay awoodda hadda la rakibay ee Japan oo ah dalka saddexaad ee ugu isticmaalka badan tamarta adduunka. . Maaddaama korontada dhuxusha lagu shido ay tahay tirada ugu badan ee awoodda cusub ee la rakibay, qiiqa qiiqa warshadda korontada ayaa sababay hoos u dhac weyn tayada hawada qaybo badan oo Shiinaha ah iyada oo ay weheliso kororka weyn ee culeyska korontada, cabashooyinka dadweynaha ayaa la buuxiyay.

Isbadalada ayaa wali socda. IHS waxay saadaalisay in hagaajinta qaabdhismeedka deegaanka dhaqaalaha iyo hagaajinta waxtarka tamarta ay hoos u dhigi doonto mustaqbalka koritaanka baahida korontada. IHS waxay isticmaashaa hababka falanqaynta xaaladaha si ay u saadaaliso suuqyada gobollada Shiinaha iyo magaalooyinka saddex xaaladood. Marka la eego xaaladda kobaca dhaqaale ee joogtada ah, celceliska dalbashada awoodda Shiinaha ee sannadlaha ah ee kobaca 2012 ilaa 2035 waxay noqon doontaa 4.1%, taas oo ah celceliska 10kii sano ee la soo dhaafay. 1/3 ee heerka kobaca. Laakiin marka la eego adduunka, kobacani weli waa mid aad u xoog badan, sababtoo ah saldhigga baahida ayaa si joogto ah u kordheysa. Sannadka 2026-ka, baahida koronto ee Shiinaha ayaa laba jibaarmi doonta marka loo eego 2012-ka, iyadoo tirada guud ee korontadu ay dhaafi doonto wadarta Mareykanka iyo Yurub marka la gaaro 2035-ka.

IHS waxay aaminsan tahay in tani ay ka dhigan tahay in Shiinuhu uu sii wado maalgelinta dhismaha kaabayaasha cusub ee tamarta, iyadoo la horumarinayo tignoolajiyada tamarta nadiifka ah ee kala duwan, sida gaaska, dabaysha iyo koronta qorraxda. In kasta oo qiimaha tignoolajiyadan cusubi uu ka badan yahay kan dhirta laga shido dhuxusha, haddana wacyiga sii kordhaya ee ilaalinta deegaanka ee bulshada oo dhan ayaa kor u qaadi doonta kobaca degdegga ah ee tignoolajiyadan nadiifka ah, gaar ahaan gobollada iyo magaalooyinka dakhligoodu sarreeyo ee xeebaha. Tusaale ahaan gaaska dabiiciga ah u qaado. Sababo la xiriira qiimaha sare ee tamarta ku shaqeysa gaaska iyo yaraanta ilaha gaaska, hadda waxay ka dhigan tahay kaliya 2% tamarta Shiinaha. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, awoodda rakibaadda ee unugyada cusub ee gaasta ku shaqeeya waxay ku sii jiri doontaa xawaare sare. Waqtigan xaadirka ah, tirada unugyada gaaska ku shaqeeya ee dhismaha iyo qorsheynta ee waddanku waxay kor u dhaafeen 30 milyan kilowatts, taas oo u dhiganta tan Maraykanka. Marka la gaaro 2035, isticmaalka gaaska dabiiciga ah ee korontadda ayaa la filayaa inuu kordho toban laab.

Waxaad yeelan kartaa baabacooyinka kalluunka iyo bear labadaba

Dad badan ayaa sidaas darteed ka walaacsan in kororka saamiga ilahan qiimaha sare leh ee tamarta ee nidaamka korontadu ay horseedi karto kor u kaca kharashka tamarta korontada, sidaas darteed cadaadis saaraya qiimaha korontadu inuu si aad ah u kordho. Si kastaba ha ahaatee, cilmi baarista IHS ee "Unlocking Tangram" waxay muujineysaa in sii gelinta tamartan cusub iyo tignoolajiyada aysan kor u qaadi doonin celceliska qiimaha korontadda Shiinaha. "Kor u kaca kharashka shidaalka, kordhinta ku tiirsanaanta tamarta la soo dejiyo, dadka ku qanacsanaanta sii kordheysa ee tayada deegaanka ayaa ah dhammaan arrimaha ay dowladdu u baahan tahay inay wax ka qabato. Laakiin maalgashadayaasha, waxaa aad muhiim u ah in la fahmo in Shiinaha aan loo tixgelin sidii hal suuq oo Tamar ah." ayuu yiri Zhou Xizhou, madaxa iyo madaxa IHS China Research Energy.

Gobollo badan oo Shiinaha ku yaal waxay u dhigmaan hal waddan oo ka tirsan Midowga Yurub ama dawlad ku taal Maraykanka marka la eego tirada dadka, miisaanka dhaqaalaha, iyo miisaanka nidaamka awoodda. Tusaale ahaan, awoodda koronto ee lagu rakibay ee Gobolka Guangxi waxay ku dhowdahay inay la mid tahay awoodda Nederland; Isticmaalka dhuxusha ee gobolka xeebta ee Jiangsu ayaa ku dhawaad ​​la siman baahida dhuxusha ee Kanada. Waxa kale oo jira nusqaamo aad u weyn oo xagga ilaha shidaalka ah iyo qiimaha u dhexeeya gobollada. Tusaale ahaan, qiimaha tafaariiqda hadda ee gaasta dabiiciga ah ee Ningxia, oo ah gobolka waqooyi-galbeed, waa ku dhawaad ​​kala badh kan Beijing.

Zhou Xizhou wuxuu aaminsan yahay: "Suuqa tamarta ee gobollada Shiinaha waa la sii kala duwanaan doonaa, taasoo ka tarjumaysa kala duwanaanshaha kheyraadka kheyraadka, goobaha juqraafiyeed, iyo heerarka horumarinta dhaqaalaha."

Zhou Xizhou wuxuu yiri, "Shiinuhu wuxuu raadinayaa waddo horumarinta tamarta si loo yareeyo ku tiirsanaanta nidaamka tamarta ee dhuxusha iyo in la isticmaalo tiknoolajiyada tamarta nadiifka ah, in la sameeyo suuq gaas dabiici ah oo weyn si loo hubiyo sahayda tamarta ku filan, iyo sidoo kale rajeynayo in la ilaaliyo qiimaha tamarta. In aan si xoog leh loo kicin si kor loogu qaado kobaca dhaqaale ee joogtada ah. "Cilmi-baadhisteenu waxay muujinaysaa in horumarinta khayraadka jaban sida tamarta tamarta biyaha laga dhaliyo ay hoos u dhigi doonto cadaadiska kor u kaca ee ay sababaan tignoolajiyada qiimaha badan ee tamarta sida gaaska dabiiciga ah iyo tamarta qorraxda. Sidaa darteed, raadinta hawo nadiif ah ma horseedi doonto in qiimaha Korontadu uu kordho. Dhanka Shiinaha, kalluunka iyo bacaha orso ayaa sidoo kale yeelan kara labadaba. "ayuu yidhi Zhou Xizhou.